COP 29: Lord Make Me Green, But Not Yet

Barry Johnston, Founding Partner

Reviewing the outcomes of COP 29, the famous prayer of St Augustine comes to mind. “Lord make me good, but not yet.” The early Christian theologian turned, eventually, from a life of excess to one of greater purity. Today the world is wrestling with its own overdue conversion. We must switch from a deep and increasingly damaging addiction to fossil fuels to a greener, more sustainable future. Like Augustine we know that path we must take but we don’t seem quite ready to make the leap. 

COP29 in Baku: An Uninspiring Outcome

The COP29 summit in Azerbaijan's oil-rich capital Baku has delivered a deal that few are enthusiastic about. Campaigners call it a betrayal, while even its biggest boosters admit it merely points us in the direction of the kinds of actions that need to be taken. Augustine the procrastinator would approve.  

At its heart lies a new $1.3 trillion climate finance target. But only $300 billion of that will come in the form of grants from rich countries to poor and even that won't materialize until 2035. The rest? Another prayer -  that private investors and novel funding mechanisms will materialise to bridge the gap.

The summit's backdrop was ominous. Donald Trump's re-election victory shrouded proceedings like a sulphuric smog. Meanwhile, the Saudis and other petrostates, still smarting from an audacious reference to *checks notes* fossil fuels in last year’s COP, had regrouped and were out to cause trouble. The developing world's frustration reached a climax when the Alliance of Small Island States and Least Developed Countries walked out in protest. Even the most skillful and committed COP presidency would have struggled to wrangle this crew. Azerbaijan, with its 90% fossil fuel export economy, had neither the motivation nor the qualifications to do so. 

Is There Progress? Reading Between the Lines

In the end, pragmatism won out over principles – better a flawed deal now than nothing at all under a future Trump administration (with the green credentials of any future German, Canadian or Australian government also in doubt).

COP agreements are like climate Rorschach tests - we all look at the same words but wildly disagree on what we see. Squint and tilt your head to the side and the optimist might be able to perceive traces of a plan to get us out of this mess. The deal acknowledges for the first time that climate finance needs to be measured in trillions, not billions. The $300 billion commitment, while insufficient, represents a tripling of current targets, though existing ones have never been met. A new "Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T" provides some purchase for continuing to drive an agenda for the kind of systemic financial reforms that climate action desperately needs.

A Growing Disconnect: Polls vs. Policies

Of course, climate negotiators can only do so much. They derive their mandates from politicians who, in turn, are closely attuned to voters. And while polling consistently shows strong support for climate action across ages, geographies and other demographics, the voting and consumption habits of the same people often tell a different story. 

This was neatly encapsulated in the UK Prime Minister’s contributions in Baku. Starmer, to his credit, was one of the few rich country heads of government to actually show up and brought with him an announcement to increase UK emissions cuts. Yet he resolutely refused to say whether this would require changes in individual behaviour, despite his own Committee on Climate Change being clear that it does. 

Our own research in the Purpose Pulse - as well as conversations with policy makers - suggest these difficult conversations may not be deferrable for much longer. When asked, Gen Z and Millennials are increasingly open to interventions not just on the big emitters like fossil fuel companies. Pluralities are also prepared to consider bans or taxes on aspects of their own lives such as eating meat and flying. Like lab grown meat and insect protein, it may not be long before these options are firmly on the menu. 

The Road Ahead: From Baku to Belém

The clean energy transition will continue regardless, driven by economic reality rather than diplomatic declarations. Every solar panel installed and wind turbine erected chips away at fossil fuel demand. But without adequate finance flowing to the developing world, this transition risks leaving behind those who can least afford to be left behind. Coming out of Baku and looking towards COP 30 in Belem next year the questions appear not about what to do, but how fast and who pays. 

Of course when Augustine eventually did give up the women and the wine, he became not just good, but a saint. The world needs a conversion on a similar scale. And it needs it now.  

For more climate insights, contact me at barry.johnston@purposeunion.com.